Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal: Odegaard's injury, Solanke's home ...

Games between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal rarely disappoint.

There has not been a goalless draw in the north London derby for 15 years and last season’s two matches produced nine goals.

Arsenal have won on their past two trips to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and, already — slightly ridiculously, given we are three games into the season — there is a sense they need another one to stay in touch with a Manchester City team who have won their past 14 consecutive Premier League matches.

With plenty at stake for both teams, The Athletic’s Tottenham reporter Jay Harris, Arsenal writer Jordan Campbell and senior data analyst Mark Carey consider the key talking points going into Sunday’s match.

Is this a good time for Tottenham to face Arsenal?

Harris: Spurs will be smelling blood when they look at the number of key players unavailable to Mikel Arteta. Ange Postecoglou has also been dealing with injury issues, but if Dominic Solanke and Micky van de Ven are fully fit, he can field his strongest XI.

When these two sides faced each other in April, Ben Davies — deputising for the injured Destiny Udogie — could not keep up with Bukayo Saka. Udogie is fit again after spending the summer recovering from thigh surgery and his battle with Saka should be more even. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg scored an own goal in that game but has since left for Marseille and Postecoglou has a wider variety of options in central midfield.

The biggest concern for Tottenham is that they can still look vulnerable at the back. Cristian Romero has made a couple of costly errors, which is somewhat understandable when you consider he only spent a couple of weeks on holiday after winning the Copa America with Argentina before returning for pre-season. Romero could have done with a rest during the international break but he played twice for Argentina. Tottenham fans will be hoping the extra game time has boosted his sharpness and that it does not leave him feeling knackered.

Carey: It is a cliche but it’s true — all rules go out of the window in derby games. The quick turnaround after the international break might mean that the contest is a little lower in intensity, but this one is difficult to predict.

For Arsenal, it is not just the blow of — as seems very likely — losing Martin Odegaard’s quality to injury but also how much it affects them tactically. Arsenal’s captain is a key component of their right-sided rotations with Ben White and Saka — a trio who have been so consistent for the past 18 months. They have plenty of quality elsewhere across the pitch, but add in Declan Rice’s suspension and Arsenal fans’ concerns become understandable.

Spurs have not made the blistering start of last season but have played well. On another day, they would have comfortably dispatched Leicester City and Newcastle United with the chances they generated and we all know that the football xG gods have a way of balancing things out across a season.

Might we see Spurs create fewer chances but score two scruffy goals? You wouldn’t bet against it.

Campbell: Considering Arsenal’s missing players, yes, they are weaker, but that need to capitalise brings its own pressure for Spurs.

Arteta signing a new three-year contract, however, should re-energise Arsenal and balance out any pessimism.

It is a statement of intent that says Arsenal are not content with being challengers. They want more and a win at Spurs would be the perfect way to show they are not going anywhere.

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Harris: This fixture always produces drama. Postecoglou’s philosophy is all about dominating the ball and pressuring the other team high up the pitch. When it works, as in their 4-0 victory over Everton last month, Tottenham do not let their opponents breathe and they score goals for fun.

The style of play comes with a lot of risk. Spurs push so many players forward that they leave themselves vulnerable to counter-attacks. Saka’s goal in Arsenal’s 3-2 victory at the end of last season is a prime example of this. As can be seen below, Spurs dominated possession and territory but Arsenal took their chances.

Harry Kane is no longer at Spurs but Son Heung-min remains a threat. The speed of Brennan Johnson and Wilson Odobert will cause problems for Arsenal’s full-backs, too. Solanke will make his home debut if he recovers from an ankle injury and scoring would be the perfect way to mark it.

Campbell: Arsenal were relentlessly efficient in the 3-2 win last season, making the most of their dominance from dead-ball situations.

But in last season’s first meeting, the enduring issue of playing well but spurning big chances prevented them from killing off the game early. Gabriel Jesus was most guilty and with the Brazilian potentially filling in for Kai Havertz up front, the question of whether Arsenal have enough killer instinct hangs over them.

Transitions will be key again for both teams and a first start for Raheem Sterling could help Arsenal add that extra incisiveness. Goals seem inevitable but do not be surprised to see Arteta employ a slightly more restrained, counter-attacking approach to compensate for the absence of Rice and Odegaard.

How might Arsenal’s midfield injuries affect things?

Campbell: Arsenal will probably be without what Arteta intended to be his first-choice midfield this season, with Mikel Merino and Odegaard both injured and Rice suspended.

The sale of Emile Smith Rowe and the loan exit of Fabio Vieira means Arsenal cannot replicate the balance they would usually have.

Havertz dropping into midfield, with Jesus taking his place up front, is a natural solution to the left-sided central-midfielder gap, but Jorginho and Thomas Partey are the only other senior conventional midfielders available. Partey being pushed forward slightly to allow the Italian to play at No 6 is one option, as is tweaking the shape to employ a double pivot, but both players can leave Arsenal lacking mobility and creativity.

Dropping Leandro Trossard back to play alongside Havertz would be an aggressive move but would risk leaving Arsenal too open. Shifting either Oleksandr Zinchenko or Jurrien Timber forward into midfield could help Arteta maximise continuity in their build-up play.

The closest thing to a like-for-like Odegaard replacement is 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri. It would be his first senior start but he could help Arsenal maintain their balance. Using an inexperienced teenager would also be the strongest rebuttal Arteta could serve to those sceptical of his willingness to trust academy players.

Harris: James Maddison is the only midfielder to have started all of Tottenham’s games this season. The 27-year-old has been accompanied by a rotating cast of Rodrigo Bentancur, Yves Bissouma, Pape Matar Sarr or Dejan Kulusevski, depending on the quality of the opposition.

In the second half of their 2-1 defeat by Newcastle, Spurs seemed to strike the right balance with a combination of Bissouma, Maddison and Kulusevski. The former protected the back four, Maddison dropped into pockets of space and sprayed passes across the pitch while Kulusevski drove forward with the ball into threatening positions. It would be a bold call by Postecoglou to start this trio against Arsenal but it might be exactly what is required to take advantage of Rice, Merino and Odegaard’s absences. If Postecoglou wants to be a little more cautious, expect to see Sarr slot in alongside Maddison and Bissouma.

Carey: There were only three games in which Odegaard did not start in the Premier League last season. Two of those were against relegated teams — Burnley and Sheffield United — making Arsenal’s match at Newcastle a decent example of how they set up in the Norwegian’s absence.

Looking at their passing network (below), it is encouraging to see that those right-sided triangles remained and Saka was not dragged deeper. On that day, Havertz was tasked with playing in the right-sided central-midfield role but, this weekend, he is more likely to play to the left or up front.

Having Zinchenko or Timber as ball-playing inside full-backs will add strength to the midfield, so you would expect to see greater numbers in central areas compared with the above graphic, where Jorginho was tasked with locking things down almost single-handedly.

Whoever plays, expect to see the same principles of play with Arsenal and a focus on wide rotations to stretch Spurs’ back line.

Would a win be more significant for Postecoglou or Arteta?

Harris: Postecoglou’s second season in charge of Tottenham has started underwhelmingly. They dominated for large spells against Leicester and Newcastle but failed to win. They tore Everton apart and demonstrated how devastating they can be when everything clicks, but Arsenal will be their toughest test yet.

Tottenham have lost to Arsenal at home for two successive seasons. They only earned one point against them last year and the last time they beat Arsenal was in May 2022 when Antonio Conte was still in charge. If Postecoglou can guide them to victory on Sunday, it would kick their season into gear and be a huge statement of intent.

If Spurs lose, they will have only taken four points out of a possible 12 and the arguments about Postecoglou’s entertaining but divisive style of play will become much louder.

Campbell: This was always going to be the start of a huge week, with a north London derby, a Champions League opener and a visit to Manchester City crammed into eight days.

But the 1-1 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion means the pressure on beating Spurs is already ramping up.

Arteta and his Arsenal players can lean on recent triumphs. They have become a team that thrives in big matches. After beating Spurs in May 2022, they went on a 17-game unbeaten streak in London derbies. Against the so-called ‘Big Six’ last season, they took 22 points from 30, becoming only the fourth team to go unbeaten against their rivals in a single season.

A win would not be as significant to Arteta as he has re-established the upper hand in the fixture over the past two seasons but in the context of chasing City, this already feels like a must-win.

What are the key tactical battles?

Harris: Watching Udogie take on Saka will be exciting and Solanke has the difficult task of escaping William Saliba’s clutches.

The key match-up, however, could be Bissouma against Havertz. The Germany international is expected to drop into midfield and, if fit, Bissouma will have the responsibility of tracking his dangerous runs into the box. Bissouma has produced two solid performances after missing the opening game of the season through suspension but can he step up against elite opposition? If Bissouma is not fit enough to play, that task could fall to Bentancur. The Uruguayan is available to start, three days after being charged by the FA over comments he made about team-mate Son.

Keep an eye on Maddison and whoever is tasked with marking him, too. Jorginho and Partey are far less mobile than Rice and Merino, which means Maddison might get that crucial extra second he needs to play a killer pass.

Campbell: It was the pressing of both teams that dominated the first fixture last season and the set-piece superiority of Arsenal that proved decisive in the second game.

Both of those aspects could prove key again, especially if Arsenal field a less dynamic midfield three. Jorginho was caught dithering on the ball in the 2-2 draw as both teams aggressively pressed the first line of build-up (as can be seen from their above-average ‘high press’ scores in The Athletic’s match dashboard below).

Postecoglou will hope his team are better equipped to deal with that challenge, having had a year to get used to his methods. When Pedro Porro and Udogie drift into the centre, Arsenal’s midfield will need to ensure there is no space for Maddison and Bissouma to dictate play.

Carey: One of Arsenal’s key strengths last season was their suffocating, relentless high press.

Their title challenge was built on rock-solid defensive foundations, and that was not exclusively because of their classy centre-backs — it was from their co-ordinated attackers not letting the opposition play out comfortably.

By contrast, one of Spurs’ biggest issues last year was their tendency to give the ball away in their own defensive third. No side had more build-ups that led to an opposition transition than Spurs’ 14.9 per 90 minutes in 2023-24, with undoubted room for Postecoglou’s side to improve over the summer.

Sure, we are in a new season now but it is worth keeping an eye out for this part of the game when Spurs have the ball in their own third. If both sides show similar character traits from last season, there could be a key tactical battle at one particular end of the field.

How to watch Tottenham vs Arsenal

Sunday, September 15, 2pm BST/9am ET. Watch live on Sky Sports in the UK or USA Network in the United States.

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