Alvarez to Atletico Madrid: How will it impact Man City?

Manchester City have confirmed that Argentinian forward Julian Alvarez has joined Atletico Madrid.

The 24-year-old made 103 appearances in all competitions for Man City, registering 36 goals and winning six major trophies.

“Today I say goodbye to this amazing club, with a lot of emotion,” Alvarez told the official club website. “These have been two very special years. During this time, I have grown and learnt a lot - both as a player and as a person.

“Manchester City will always have a special place in my heart. I wish you every success in the future and I will keep on supporting the club wherever I may be.”

Here, Alex Keble assesses how Alvarez's departure will affect the champions.

How will it impact Man City?

“He will come back,” was Pep Guardiola’s defiant response to rumours Alvarez was heading out the door.

“I count on him, but he said in the news that decisions will be made all together. Now he has to rest and when he feels ready to come back he will come back.

“I'm sure when he comes back I'll hug and congratulate him for the Copa America 2024, for the Paris 2024 Olympics and we will start to work together. This is the reality.”

Those are not the words of a manager who expected Alvarez, who started 31 Premier League matches for Manchester City last season, to be on the way to Atletico Madrid within days of Argentina’s Olympics exit.

Guardiola presumably would have preferred to keep his versatile young forward. Man City are weaker without him.

Alvarez’s stats suggest he will be a big loss

Alvarez has been a superb player over his two years at Etihad Stadium, graduating from impact substitute in 2022/23 to a first-team regular during Kevin De Bruyne’s injury last year.

And his raw numbers are sensational. In just 5,902 minutes of football in all competitions, (the equivalent of 65.6 full matches) Alvarez racked up 49 goals and assists.

Those are elite numbers.

He was among Man City’s most prolific scorers and creators last season, too, deputising expertly for De Bruyne or Erling Haaland.

Only Phil Foden created more chances than Alvarez’s 67, only Foden and Haaland got more than his 19 goal involvements, and he crossed the ball more than anyone else (137).

Alvarez creativity and Man City rank 23/24  Player Chances created  Goal involvements Crosses Alvarez 67 (3rd) 19 (3rd) 137 (1st)

His importance to the team is best captured by FBRef’s calculation of goals scored minus goals allowed while each individual Man City player was on the pitch. They put Alvarez second only to Rodri.

Player +/- Goals while Man City player was on pitch, PL 23/24 Player Total Rodri +61 Julian Alvarez +52 Ederson +51 Manuel Akanji +49 Kyle Walker +49

And in worse news for Man City supporters, Alvarez was clearly getting better over time, as his per-90 metrics indicate.

Alvarez stats per 90 past two seasons Season Goals/assists Touches Chances created Progressive passes Crosses 2022/23 0.6 40.1 1.1 2.3 1.6 2023/24 0.7 52.9 2.3 3.5 4.7

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Without all those goals and assists, Man City’s already lean squad has just got weaker.

City don’t have many creative options outside the first XI, so it would only take another injury to De Bruyne or Haaland for Guardiola’s side to keenly feel the loss of Alvarez.

There is no other way to interpret the sale. Man City’s title chances have taken a dent.

Alvarez wouldn’t have been first XI in 24/25

However, it is probable that Alvarez would not have got as much game-time in 2024/25.

De Bruyne’s renewed fitness was likely to severely limit Alvarez’s opportunities going forward, given how much better the 33-year-old is.

In 2023/24 De Bruyne significantly outperformed his team-mate when you look at the per-90 numbers:

Alvarez v De Bruyne PL stats per 90 in 23/24   Goals/assists Touches Chances created Progressive passes Crosses Alvarez 23/24 0.7 52.9 2.3 3.5 4.7 De Bruyne 23/24 1.0 81.1 4.3 8.2 10.0

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Alvarez is a good stand-in for De Bruyne but clearly the Belgian is first choice, and what’s more the two were unlikely to play together in the same midfield.

In 2024 they only played together twice as eights: a 3-1 win at Brentford that required coming back from a goal down and a 1-1 draw with Chelsea, in which Alvarez was withdrawn in the 64th minute with City losing.

Alvarez wouldn’t have started as an eight or 10 very often, then, unless De Bruyne was again injured, while his chances of beating Haaland to a starting spot were also slim– despite the potential advantage to Man City.

Last season Guardiola’s team won all nine Premier League matches in which Alvarez started as the No 9; the Argentinian’s creativity and tendency to drop off the front arguably makes him a better tactical fit to lead the line.

The best example of this was his role in a 4-1 hammering of Aston Villa, a team that reduced Haaland to just 15 touches in Villa’s 1-0 win earlier in the season.

On the surface, Alvarez’s departure won’t affect Man City too deeply this season because De Bruyne and Haaland were always set to be picked instead of him.

But De Bruyne isn’t getting any younger and there were multiple occasions last season when Alvarez outperformed Haaland in the No 9 role.

He could have been a future star in a couple of attacking positions.

How do Man City replace Alvarez?

Even after De Bruyne’s return in January, Alvarez started a further 11 Premier League matches, popping up in central midfield, up front, and on either wing.

He was a vital utility player for Guardiola; a sharp, creative, and intelligent figure able to smoothly and efficiently fill in as a point of difference during Man City’s run-in.

It won’t be easy to replace that kind of ability.

Interestingly, an ideal replacement would have been Joao Felix, a player reportedly offered to Man City as part of the deal that took Alvarez to Atletico Madrid.

Clearly City don’t agree, perhaps not trusting Felix after a less-than-impressive loan spell at Chelsea, but in terms of profile he is the right kind of player.

Alvarez is brilliant on the half-turn, picking up smart positions between the lines as well as finishing clinically after popping up in the right place in the box.

It’s a rare mix of qualities that Felix also possesses: instinctive movement, hyper-intelligent reading of the game, and technical artistry anywhere in the final third.

One possible alternative is Eberechi Eze, a reported summer target for Man City. It would not be a like-for-like, but Eze has experience playing in a deeper midfield role as well as on the wing.

Eze, though, is certainly not a centre-forward. Unlike Alvarez, he isn’t a three-in-one footballer capable of hitting world-beating goal and assist numbers even when dipping in and out of the side.

Frankly, there aren’t many of those around. No wonder Guardiola hoped he’d come back.