Celtics vs. Heat Game 3 picks, player props and same-game parlay ...

21 May 2023

Sports Betting Dime provides exclusive sports betting content to MassLive.com, including real-time odds, picks, analysis and sportsbook offers to help sports fans get in on the action. Please wager responsibly.

The Boston Celtics face a virtual must-win situation in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Final on Sunday night. The Miami Heat have jumped out to a surprising 2-0 series lead thanks to a huge performance from Jimmy Butler.

Oddsmakers are expecting a pushback from Jayson Tatum and company, as they’ve set Boston as small road favorites over Miami in Game 3. Tip off for this ECF matchup is 8:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center.

Let’s get into our Celtics vs Heat picks and player props to target for Game 3.

Celtics vs Heat Game 3 Odds
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotalBoston Celtics-3.5 (-106)-158O 213.5 (-110)Miami Heat+3.5 (-114)+134U 213.5 (-110)

Boston is listed as a -158 moneyline favorite in Game 3, meaning they have an implied win probability of 61.2%.

FanDuel Sportsbook $1,000 NO-SWEAT BET

21+ and present in participating states. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.

Odds as of May 20th at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel promo code to bet on Celtics vs Heat Game 3.

Boston vs Miami Betting Analysis

The Miami Heat continue to silence the critics who have doubted them since the opening night of the NBA postseason. Despite being the No. 8 seed, the Heat have taken a 2-0 series lead over the No. 2 Celtics in the Eastern Conference Final.

The Heat are an example of a team literally defying the odds. According to ESPN analytics, Miami only had a 3% chance of reaching the NBA Finals prior to the ECF. Miami will hope to keep exceeding expectations, as they still only have a 35% chance to defeat Boston per those same analytics.

The Celtics have been favored in both games against Miami, including 8.5-point favorites in Game 1 and 10-point favorites in Game 2. Miami has offered tremendous underdog value, winning outright on the moneyline at +305 and +350.

Boston hasn’t been covering the spread consistently going back to the last round. The Celtics are just 2-4 ATS in their past six games, while the Heats are on an impressive 9-2 ATS run in their past 11 contests.

When it comes to the game total, bettors who cheer for high-scoring games haven’t been disappointed. The “over” has hit in both Eastern Conference Final games so far, and has also cashed in 10 of Boston’s last 13 contests overall.

Celtics vs Heat Betting Pick

Oddsmakers and analytics alike indicate that this series is far from over. The last time Boston was down 2-0 in these playoffs (Round 2 vs Philadelphia), they responded with a 95-86 road win to force a Game 7.

The good news for Boston is they’ve been a better team on the road than at home this postseason, posting a solid 4-2 record away from TD Garden. Furthermore, Jayston Tatum arrived in Game 2 with a 34-point performance that should inspire confidence going forward.

There are a few things that likely need to happen for Boston to win Game 3. Firstly, Jaylen Brown needs to bounce back after shooting 7/23 (30.4%) in Game 2. The Celtics also can’t turn the ball over 15 times and get out-rebounded 45-35 like they did last outing.

We’re betting on Boston to respond with their backs against the wall. Yes, they’ve had a hard time defending Jimmy Butler, but they had a 12-point lead heading into the fourth quarter Friday and blew it.

The Celtics are due for some positive regression after shooting well below their three-point average in the two Eastern Final games so far. It also helps that the Heat surrender the second-most threes (13.3) per game at home. Lastly, the Celtics haven’t lost three straight games since the start of March.

Prediction: Celtics -3.5

Caesars $1,250 BET ON CAESARS

STATES: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA. Participating states only. 21+. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. MA only. 21+. New users and first wager only. Must register with eligible promo code. Bet amount of qualifying wager returned only if wager is settled as a loss. Maximum additional Bonus Bet of $1,250. Bonus Bet must be used within 14 days of receipt. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Void where prohibited. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling Problem? If you or a loved one is experiencing problems with gambling, please call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support.

Celtics vs Heat Player Props & Same-Game Parlay

When it comes to our Celtics vs Heat same-game parlay for Game 3, we’re banking on a bounce-back performance from Jaylen Brown, plus pure desperation from Boston facing a potential 3-0 series deficit.

There have been two instances this postseason when Brown failed to record double-digit points, and he responded each time by putting up at least 25 points the following game. FanDuel is only listing Brown’s player prop number at 23.5, which offers value considering he went for 28 playing in Miami during the regular season.

We also like targeting the game total in this same-game parlay, as both teams rank top-three in offensive rating this postseason. The Celtics and Heat have averaged 227.5 points through the first two matchups, and the over is also 10-2 in the Celtics’ last 12 road games.

A change of scenery could provide the spark Boston needs in this series. In addition to the team’s solid road record this season, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Miami.

If you parlay the Celtics -3.5 spread, with the over on Jaylen Brown’s point total and the game total over, you can get juicy +467 odds at FanDuel. A simple $10 wager on this SGP would payout $56.70 if successful.

Pick: Same-Game Parlay (+467)

DraftKings $150 Bonus Bets!

STATES: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV. 21+ and present in participating states. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. 21+. Physically present in MA. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. First-time depositors only who have not already redeemed $200 in bonus bets via OH or MA prelaunch offer. Min. $5 deposit. Min $5 bet. $200 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at http://draftkings.com/ma.

If you or a loved one has questions and needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call the Massachusetts Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org to speak with a trained specialist to receive support. Specialists are available 24/7. Services are available in multiple languages and are free and confidential.

If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation.

Read more
Similar news