Arsenal vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction: Champions League Match ...
The Opta supercomputer leans heavily in Arsenal’s favour for Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League clash. Can Shakhtar Donetsk provide an unlikely upset? Read our Arsenal vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction and preview to find out.
Arsenal will put their weekend Premier League disappointment to one side as they look to build on their impressive victory over Paris Saint-Germain last time out in the UEFA Champions League.
Shakhtar Donetsk make the trip on Tuesday to the Emirates Stadium, where Mikel Arteta’s side dispatched PSG 2-0 thanks to goals from Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka in their last outing in UEFA’s premier club competition.
Saka has scored five goals from eight shots on target in this season’s competition – since the start of last season, no player has overperformed their expected goals total by more than his +3.27 (five goals from 1.73 xG).
It remains to be seen whether Saka will feature for this clash, though, after his omission from Saturday’s squad that suffered a 2-0 league defeat away to Bournemouth. William Saliba was sent off in that clash, but will be available in the European competition.
Changes aplenty could be on the cards for Arsenal, though, and Gabriel Jesus will hope to add to an impressive record against Tuesday’s opponents should he start, having scored four Champions League goals against Shakhtar. That includes a hat-trick in November 2018 against the Ukrainian side, though all four came while playing for Manchester City.
Arteta could freshen things up at the back as well, though he will certainly be keen to record a third clean sheet in this Champions League campaign (also drawing 0-0 against Atalanta). The Gunners haven’t managed that feat in the competition since a four-game run under Arsène Wenger from September to November 2007.
Whoever the hosts start in their lineup, Arteta will expect to maintain Arsenal’s impeccable Emirates record. Arsenal have not suffered a home group/league phase defeat in the Champions League since September 2015, losing 3-2 to unlikely victors Olympiakos.
The Premier League title challengers have won eight of their nine such games since the surprise Olympiakos defeat (D1), keeping a clean sheet in each of those triumphs, and Shakhtar may struggle to buck that trend here.
Marino Pusic’s men are one of only four teams yet to score in this season’s competition, along with Young Boys, Red Bull Salzburg and Bologna, the latter of whom they shared a goalless draw with before their 3-0 defeat to Atalanta last time out.
The underlying metrics provide greater concern for Pusic, whose side rank bottom in the revamped Champions League format for total shots (10, level with Lille) and shots on target (1) after the first two matchdays, while only two sides have posted lower overall xG numbers.
That may be somewhat explained by their gameplan, with Shakhtar progressing the ball up the pitch slower than any other team in the Champions League this season (0.97 metres per second). As a result, they are one of only three teams – along with Girona and PSV – yet to manage a direct attack in this European campaign.
Problems persist outside of Europe, too, as Pusic’s team have been slow to start and sit fourth in the Ukrainian Premier League, though they beat Kolos on Friday thanks to Ilir Krasniqi’s second-half own goal.
For all of Shakhtar’s struggles, Danylo Sikan may be their best hope of a goal on Tuesday. Excluding own goals, Sikan – who suffered a broken nose against Bologna – has been directly involved in four of his team’s last seven Champions League strikes (three goals, one assist).
It is hard to imagine anything other than a home win considering Arsenal’s recent form, and Shakhtar’s struggles, as well as the head-to-head record between these two teams.
All four Champions League meetings between this pair have been won by Arsenal, with Tuesday’s hosts winning 3-2 at Highbury in 2001 and 5-1 at the Emirates in 2010.
Shakhtar are also winless in their last seven Champions League visits to England, with one draw and six defeats all coming in the group stages.
The Ukrainian giants managed to avoid defeat on their last such trip to England, however, after holding Man City to an unlikely 1-1 draw in November 2019.
Arsenal vs Shakhtar Donetsk PredictionThe Opta supercomputer struggled to see anything other than Arsenal winning this one – the hosts triumphed in a dominant 81.3% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Shakhtar were afforded just a meagre 7.3% likelihood of winning in the same data-led sims, with the draw slightly more likely at 11.4%.
In terms of the overall tournament predictions, Arsenal are the supercomputer’s sixth favourites, winning the competition in 8% of simulations. Shakhtar are understandably rank outsiders. They only qualify for the knockout rounds 1% of the time.
Arsenal vs Shakhtar Donetsk Predicted Lineups Opta Power RankingsThe Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this week, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Arsenal vs Shakhtar Donetsk SquadsArsenal: David Raya, Neto, Tommy Setford, William Saliba, Kieran Tierney, Ben White, Gabriel, Jurriën Timber, Jakub Kiwior, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Riccardo Calafiori, Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard, Leandro Trossard, Jorginho, Mikel Merino, Kai Havertz, Raheem Sterling, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Shakhtar Donetsk: Tymur Puzankov, Dmytro Riznyk, Denys Tvardovskyi, Kiril Fesiun, Valeriy Bondar, Pedrinho, Irakli Azarovi, Vinicius Augusto, Alaa Ghram, Mykola Matviyenko, Yukhym Konoplia, Marian Farina, Bartol Franjic, Taras Stepanenko, Dmytro Kryskiv, Marian Shved, Georgiy Sudakov, Oleksandr Zubkov, Anton Glushchenko, Artem Bondarenko, Viktor Tsukanov, Yehor Nazaryna, Marlon Gomes, Pedrinho, Lassina Traoré, Eguinaldo, Danylo Sikan, Kevin Macedo, Newertton.
Head coach: Marino Pusic
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