Europa League play-off round predictions: 13/1 accumulator betting ...
(5.45pm, TNT Sports 2)
Shakhtar only narrowly missed out on a place in the Champions League last 16, losing a second place decider to Porto on Matchday 6, and yet are outsiders in the Europa League odds for their meeting with Marseille.
Shakhtar may not be playing at home – the first leg will take place at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg – but that’s been the case for a while, and it didn’t stop them from beating Antwerp and Barcelona in the Champions League group stage.
In fact, the Ukrainians have lost just two of their last eight European home games and may be catching Marseille at a good time.
After a good start to life under Gennaro Gattuso, L’OM have won one of their last seven games, while their European away record of five defeats in the last eight matches on their travels doesn’t inspire confidence.
There are a couple of reasons to approach any bet on Shakhtar with an element of caution though, one being that they haven’t played a competitive game since December 8.
The other is the impressive Europa League scoring record of Marseille’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who netted five times for the French side in the group stage and is one away from becoming the competition’s joint-highest scorer.
That’s enough to push us towards taking Shakhtar on the draw no bet market on gambling sites, rather than to win outright.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Marseille Tip: Shakhtar Donetsk draw no bet – 11/8 with SpreadEx
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(8pm, TNT Sports 1)
AC Milan were another team to narrowly miss out on the Champions League last 16 after failing to progress from this year’s group of death.
The Rossoneri have landed another tough draw now they are in the Europa League, being paired with a Rennes side on a run of eight straight victories in all competitions.
The French side finished runners-up to Villarreal in the group stage, despite an excellent attacking output of 13 goals. Only five sides scored more in the group stages, while Rennes have netted in 15 of their last 16 European games.
Milan are also going along nicely, winning 10 of their last 12 games in all competitions, and only Inter Milan (55) have netted more goals than Stefano Pioli's men in Serie A this season.
Top scorer Olivier Giroud, Rafael Leao, Luka Jovic and Christian Pulisic are all expected to be available for this game, giving Pioli plenty of attacking options.
Given the morale-boosting results both sides have enjoyed recently and their goalscoring talents, this shapes up as a good tie with both teams to score fancied for the first leg.
AC Milan vs Rennes Tip: Both teams to score – 5/6 with BetMGM
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(8pm, TNT Sports 2)
Toulouse have performed above expectations by qualifying for the spring section of a Uefa Cup/Europa League for the first time in their history after finishing runners-up to Liverpool in their group.
However, football betting sites forecast their journey will come to an end in the play-off round with Benfica’s odds to qualify implying an 80 per cent chance they’ll advance to the last 16.
The Portuguese giants have won 21 out of 26 home matches in the Europa League era and are on a run of 11 wins in the last 13 matches in all competitions. They are opposed by a Toulouse side struggling to keep their heads above water in Ligue 1, sitting one point above the dreaded dotted line.
They’ve won three of their last nine since the Europa League group stages ended and although they’ve only lost once in Europe this season, that defeat was a 5-1 hammering by Liverpool at Anfield.
This first leg may be just as one-sided with Benfica liable to kill the tie off at home against Toulouse, who have the Europa League’s ninth-highest expected goals against figure (10.4) and allow 14.7 shots on goal per game.
Benfica’s last 11 games have featured at least three goals and pairing over 2.5 goals with a home win is worth consideration.
Benfica vs Toulouse Tip: Benfica to win & over 2.5 goals – Evs with William Hill
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(8pm, TNT Sports Extra)
Lens have acquitted themselves pretty well on their long-awaited return to European football, recording famous home wins over Sevilla and Arsenal as they finished third in their Champions League section.
Those wins maintained Lens’ excellent home record in Europe, which now stretches to 11 games without defeat, while they’ve lost only twice inside 90 minutes at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis in all competitions this season.
Given their limited exposure to European football, the Stade Bollaert-Delelis should be bouncing for the visit of an injury-hit Freiburg side that’s lost its last three games on the spin.
The Bundesliga side have lost their last four away games and their record of six wins in 15 away European games suggests betting sites are right to make Lens odds-on for victory.
Freiburg have shipped nine goals in their last three games and look up against it in France with a Lens victory the pick to round off our Europa League predictions.
Lens vs Freiburg Tip: Lens to beat Freiburg – 4/5 with Betfred
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Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.
