Chelsea FC's chances of winning the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup

The summer of 2025 was shaping up to be a long, boring one until the new and improved Club World Cup came around. The competition will pit 32 of the world’s best soccer clubs against each other from June 15th to July 25th, alleviating soccer fans from a good part of the dreaded gameless chasm between the end of one season and the start of the next. Among these competitors is our beloved Chelsea FC. Yep, we’ll be taking part in soccer’s version of Best of the Best (if you remember that movie sorry about your knees and back).

On any other given season, our sixth-place finish would have extinguished any dreams of mixing it up with the world’s finest. But a tweak in the rules means our 2020/2021 season’s UEFA Champions League (UCL) win qualifies us for the biggest competition in club soccer. This means that we can end the season with five trophies if we conquer on all fronts. Hey, no one could’ve bet on us being second on the table 14 games in; we’re allowed to dream.

Now that we’ve snuck into the CWC, what are our chances of running away with it? Which clubs are strong enough to prevent us from showing we’re the world’s best? Looking at the clubs Chelsea has been pooled with from yesterday’s draw, it’s hard to see us not making it out of the group. I have the greatest respect for Clube de Regatas do Flamengo, whose home is the mythical Maracanã. Espérance Sportive de Tunisie has been a powerhouse in African football for decades. Club Léon are a bit of an unknown quantity for me and they’re currently 11th on Mexico’s equivalent of the EPL. Having accorded our Group D mates their due respect, I don’t see any of them stopping us from reaping maximum points.

So, which teams from the other seven groups can stop us from claiming the inter-continental club crown? There’s Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami. At 37, he may not be as agile as his Barcelona self, but he’s still nutmegging defenders for fun and banging in classy left-foot curlers. With ex-Barcelona buddies Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba, Luis Suarez and now coached by Javier Mascherano, Messi looks set to end the season with a hattrick of trophies. David Beckham’s MLS franchise team definitely won’t be a pushover but our more youthful stars might just give us the edge.      

Egypt’s record title winners Al Ahly are another team to look out for. They’ve dominated both their domestic league and the African Champions League for years and have come third in four previous editions of the tournament. Al Ahly’s deep CWC experience can be a challenge for our youthful squad, but again, many of our boys have already had a taste of major international tournaments. And let’s not forget we did win the CWC in 2021.     

Messi’s native Argentina will be represented by Club Atlético River Plate, the country’s most decorated soccer club. They reached the finals of the 2015 Club World Cup, which they lost to 3-0, courtesy of Messi and Suarez. If they get out of their group, which they most likely will, River Plate can be a problem. We could have said the same for their more successful domestic rivals Boca Juniors but I don’t see them making it past FC Bayern Munich and SL Benfica in Group C.

Which brings us to our European rivals who, with all due respect to all the other deservingly qualified teams, will be more likely to end Chelsea’s quest for a second CWC. Borussia Dortmund have been floundering domestically but are in the top-four of the UCL standings.

They always seem to unwrap fresh young forwards every season and 20 year-old English sensation Jamie Bynoe-Gittens has ably filled the boots left by our own Jadon Sancho. If we do play Dortmund, I hope our right full-back Malo Gusto will be on his A game to contend with Gittens’ speed and wizardry on the left flank.

The other Bundesliga representatives at the CWC, Bayern Munich, can also be a tricky prospect. They have not one, but two youthful forwards in Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise who have played a big part in Munich sitting pretty at the top of the German league. And they have the prolific Harry Kane to apply the finishing touch to Musiala and Olise’s creativity. But the Bavarian team’s soft underbelly has been exposed in the UEFA Champions League. Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto and Nicholas Jackson should find a way to exploit that suspect defensive pairing of Kim Min-Jae and Dayot Upamecano.

Again, with all due respect to Juventus FC, they shouldn’t pose much of a threat to our Club World Cup ambitions. The record Italian Serie A title winners are a shadow of their former dominant selves, struggling to find their feet under new coach Tiago Motta. It’s the reigning scudetto holders Internazionale Milano we should be concerned about.

They haven’t really regained last season’s swagger, but only Liverpool FC is ahead of them in the current UCL standings. And on their night, their front pairing of Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram can humiliate the most accomplished defenders. Our head-to-head record against the Milan outfit also favors them- they’ve won three of their six games against Chelsea; we’ve won two.  

Challenge from Madrid? Not really

Spain is represented by two Madrid teams in the CWC. Real Madrid are among the favorites to win the competition- they’ve won it five times before. Though it has to be said that the current Los Blancos squad looks rather wobbly. Luka Modric is likely to leave next season and they still haven’t found a convincing replacement in the middle of the park.

Long-term injuries to full-back Dani Carvajal and center-backs David Alaba and Eder Militão have compromised the squad’s defensive cohesion. And the Kylian Mbappé project is not yet paying dividends. There’s never been a better time for us to play against Real.

Atletico Madrid seems to be on a slightly stronger footing than Real on current form. They pinched away our former captain Conor Gallagher last season in exchange for Joao Felix and it seems they got the sweeter part of that deal. But one wonders how long Atletico’s good run can last given the age of the squad. If our pacy winger Noni Madueke will be facing 35 year-old former Chelsea right-back Cesar Azpilicueta, we can expect a few goal-scoring chances from that flank.

Our biggest obstacle to Club World Cup glory could be from home. Manchester City won’t have any trouble getting out of a group where Juventus FC is the only noteworthy opponent. Yes, their current form is ropy- four straight Premier League losses before last night’s win over Nottingham Forest. But there are signs the Citizens are about to get back to their imperious best, thanks in large part to the return of captain Kevin De Bruyne from injury.

The Nottingham Forest win was the first EPL game he’s started this season. But they’re still missing another key player in Ballon d’Or winner Rodri and he won’t be back to full fitness by the time the CWC kicks off. And if this Rodri-less City is all that stands between us and the trophy, then we do have a big shot at becoming world champs.

But even if we win the CWC again, what does a summer of competitive football portend for the 2025/2026 season? From where I sit, it means a shorter pre-season and a rough start to the season. If the boys are to rest as much as they deserve after a grueling season of god knows how many games besides the Premier League’s 38, Enzo Maresca will be forced to squeeze his schedule of preparatory training and matches.

With a first-team squad as big as Chelsea’s we need all the time we can get to rebuild fitness and chemistry. Casse-tête is what the French call such impossible equations. I’ll leave the mathematics to the man paid to figure it out. All I want is to see us on top of the world come July.