What are the implications of the Hassan Nasrallah assassination?
SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah confirmed that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed on Friday in Israeli airstrikes in Beirut. Nasrallah led the Iran-backed group for more than 30 years. In a statement responding to the news, President Biden said, quote, "Hassan Nasrallah and the terrorist group he led, Hezbollah, were responsible for killing hundreds of Americans over a four-decade reign of terror."
Nasrallah's assassination is a major development in the ongoing war between Israel and militant group Hamas, and it increases the prospects of an all-out regional war. With me now to discuss what this means is Lina Khatib. She's a fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the foreign policy think tank Chatham House. Welcome.
LINA KHATIB: Thank you.
DETROW: You know, this conflict has gone on so long that, at times, I think we can all be numb to the major developments and what matters and what doesn't. You have written that this is a seismic shift. Help us connect the dots as to why this is such an important moment.
KHATIB: Nasrallah had been at the helm of Hezbollah for more than three decades. And during this time, Hezbollah's power grew exponentially. It became Lebanon's most powerful political party. It became the country's most armed group other than the Lebanese army. And regionally, Hezbollah came to be very influential because it mentored other armed groups supported by Iran in the Middle East. And this kind of combination of perceived strengths made Hezbollah appear invincible, and I don't think Hezbollah itself anticipated that, one day, Israel would assassinate the secretary general that had been seen as a pillar for Hezbollah for so long.
DETROW: What was it in particular that made him so powerful a leader of Hezbollah?
KHATIB: Hassan Nasrallah became so prominent partly because of his charisma as a public figure, partly because of his role in being able to bring together different members of armed groups that are supported by Iran in the region who all looked up to him. He also claimed two big victories against Israel. One is the withdrawal of Israel from Lebanon in 2000, and the second one is Hezbollah's declared victory against Israel in the war that they had in 2006. All those things made Hezbollah a party with credibility in the eyes of its supporters and made Nasrallah the, in a way, embodiment of this almost otherworldly power that Hezbollah projected.
DETROW: I mentioned President Biden's response and the response of American officials. I'm wondering what you're seeing of the broader response in Lebanon beyond Hezbollah. What was his reputation? How are people reacting to this?
KHATIB: One has to remember that for all the strengths that Hezbollah projected through Nasrallah, the group has also been engaged in intimidation of its political opponents in Lebanon, assassinating some of them, like former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in 2005. And so in Lebanon, there is a lot of opposition to Hezbollah, and the problem for the people opposing Hezbollah is because Hezbollah had used its military power as political currency in the country and used its weapons to intimidate its opponents. Those who did not like it were basically subdued.
And so now the reaction of people in Lebanon who are against Hezbollah is cautious expressions of the need for national unity. They are not able to really publicly celebrate the death of Nasrallah because they worry about causing sectarian strife in the country, causing divisions in Lebanon as a result. But I know, deep down, they will be relieved that this figure has been eliminated.
DETROW: Hezbollah, of course, is backed in so many ways by Iran. What are you looking for over the coming days to see whether this does lead to that broader escalation of direct violence between Iran and Israel?
KHATIB: Iran's public statements so far about the killing of Nasrallah have been very muted. They are not taking the level of defiant tone that could have been expected when the leader of Iran's most valuable asset in the Middle East is killed. Iran, I think, will be deeply worried following the killing of Hassan Nasrallah because this killing underlines how vulnerable Hezbollah is to Israeli surveillance, infiltration, as well as military might, and this, by extension, is a risk that Iran itself faces. So I doubt that Iran will be able to retaliate against Israel in any meaningful way. What is more likely to happen is Iran thinking quite carefully about its next steps and its own self-preservation and survival facing Israel.
DETROW: That's Lina Khatib, a fellow at Chatham House in London. Thank you so much.
KHATIB: Thank you.
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