How Jorge Martin can win the 2024 MotoGP title in the Malaysian GP

3 days ago

autosport.com

Jorge Martin can seal the 2024 MotoGP title in the Malaysian Grand Prix after his nearest rival Francesco Bagnaia crashed out of Saturday's sprint race at the Sepang International Circuit.

In what many see as the decisive moment in their championship scrap, Bagnaia lost the front end of his factory Ducati at the tricky uphill Turn 9 on lap 3 of 10, while running in second place behind Martin.

This has given the Pramac rider a massive 29-point lead in the championship standings, with just two grands prix and a sprint race left to run.

The 26-year-old, who is chasing a maiden crown, will have his first match point in Sunday's full-distance race as he aims to avenge for his title defeat to Bagnaia in 2023.

An early coronation could be crucial for the Spaniard, as the venue and date for the season finale is yet to be announced.

Valencia was due to host the final round on 15-17 November, but heavy flooding in the region forced MotoGP to cancel the race just two weeks ahead of its scheduled date. A replacement round could take place in Jerez, Barcelona, Portimao or Qatar.

Martin Bagnaia If Martin wins Bagnaia must finish third or lower If Martin finishes second Bagnaia must finish fifth or lower If Martin finishes third Bagnaia must finish ninth or lower If Martin finishes fourth Bagnaia must finish 12th or lower If Martin finishes fifth Bagnaia must finish 14th or lower If Martin finishes sixth Bagnaia must finish 15th or lower If Martin finishes seventh Bagnaia must not score points If Martin finishes eight or lower The title will not be decided in Malaysia

To put it into simple words, Martin needs to extend his lead by at least nine points in order to be crowned the 2024 champion in Malaysia.

That means he must finish at least seventh in order to put the title out of Bagnaia's reach.

Given the speed both Martin and Bagnaia have shown so far this weekend, it is likely that the two will finish on the podium.

If Martin wins the race, his title rival must finish third or lower for the championship to be decided early. If Bagnaia is able to follow Martin home in second place, that will mean the title fight will continue into the finale - albeit with a mammoth 34-point gap between the two.

A second-place finish for Martin would be enough if Bagnaia fails to finish higher than fifth. The championship fight will carry over to the final round if Bagnaia wins the race or finishes second.

The final spot on the podium would also suffice if the two-time champion has a difficult race and cannot finish inside the top eight.

The opposite scenario

Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing, Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

No matter where Martin finishes on Sunday, he will head to the final round as the championship leader.

Even if Bagnaia wins the grand prix and Martin fails to score, the Spaniard will still hold a four-point lead in the standings.

While Martin has already put one hand on the title, Bagnaia's only option is to score the maximum number of points on Sunday and then hope for a miracle in the season finale.

A total of 37 points would then be on offer in the last round.

Here's how the championship picture would look like if Bagnaia wins the Malaysian GP and Martin finishes second or lower:

Bagnaia Martin Points gap Wins Finishes second 24 Wins Finishes third 20 Wins Finishes fourth 17 Wins Finishes fifth 15 Wins Finishes sixth 14 Wins Finishes seventh 13 Wins Finishes eighth 12 Wins Finishes ninth 11 Wins Finishes 10th 10 Wins Finishes 11th 9 Wins Finishes 12th 8 Wins Finishes 13th 7 Wins Finishes 14th 6 Wins Finishes 15th 5 Wins Fails to score a point / retires 4