Man Utd vs Chelsea Prediction | Opta Analyst
We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Old Trafford with our Man Utd vs Chelsea prediction and preview, as the hosts prepare for their first top-flight game since Erik ten Hag’s departure.
Erik ten Hag long appeared doomed at Manchester United. A stay of execution after last season’s FA Cup triumph has, unsurprisingly, come to an end.
United sacked the Dutchman on Monday, placing his compatriot Ruud van Nistelrooy in temporary charge. The former striker is set to take charge of his second match against Chelsea this weekend.
The Red Devils have moved swiftly to appoint a permanent successor, though, with Ruben Amorim of Sporting CP set to join the club on 11 November.
Until then, Van Nistelrooy – who oversaw a 5-2 win over Leicester City in the EFL Cup on Wednesday – will be in charge, with games against PAOK in the UEFA Europa League and Leicester in the Premier League to follow the visit of Chelsea.
While the midweek feast of goals will have undoubtedly improved the mood somewhat at United, their two prior home league games against some of the competition’s other top sides this season were hard to stomach. Those matches saw the Red Devils lose 3-0 to both Liverpool and Tottenham.
But will it be different now Ten Hag has gone?
Ten Hag lost 32% of his Premier League games in charge of United (27/85), the joint-biggest proportion along with David Moyes (11/34).
Seven of his 27 defeats – including the 4-3 at Chelsea last term – came via 90th-minute winners, the highest percentage (26%) of any manager to lose 20+ games in Premier League history, a concerning indictment of United’s mentality under Ten Hag according to some.
While Amorim is waiting in the wings, this is another opportunity for Van Nistelrooy to ease the tension at Old Trafford. United sit 14th and might be even lower come kick-off, meaning their European aspirations could be hanging by a thread already if they drop yet more points.
United have picked up just 11 Premier League points this season (W3 D2 L4), their second fewest after nine games (10 in 2019-20). The only two occasions they have lost four of their first nine Premier League games have been in each of the last two campaigns under Ten Hag.
United scoring five goals in midweek was a timely boost for their fans, given putting chances away has been such a big issue for the Red Devils this term.
Only Southampton and Crystal Palace (six each) have scored fewer Premier League goals in 2024-25 than United (eight).
Indeed, United have underperformed their expected goals (14.8) by 6.8, the worst differential of any side in 2024-25. Further to that, only Everton (-26) have underperformed their xG more than United (-17.9 – 123 goals from an xG of 140.9) since 2022-23.
Scoring goals has certainly not been an issue for Chelsea under Enzo Maresca, however.
The Blues have scored 19 times already in the league this term, which is a tally bettered only by league leaders Manchester City.
Maresca has gone with youth this season, so a fearless approach that has mostly been present in the league is perhaps no surprise.
Chelsea have named the youngest starting XI on average in the Premier League this season (23 years, 206 days). In their 2-1 win over Newcastle last weekend, they became just the second team in Premier League history to not name a single outfield player aged 25+ in their starting XI for a match, after Aston Villa who did so in two games in 2013.
Cole Palmer has been the driving force for the Blues. He has been directly involved in 33 Premier League goals for Chelsea in 2024 (21 goals, 12 assists); only two players have had more goals and assists in a calendar year for the Blues – Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink in 2001 (25 goals, 11 assists) and Didier Drogba in 2010 (22 goals, 13 assists).
Palmer scored in both of Chelsea’s Premier League games against United last season, including a hat-trick in the 4-3 win at Stamford Bridge. The only Chelsea players to score in three consecutive Premier League games against the Red Devils are Hasselbaink (2000-2001) and Juan Mata (2012-2013).
Manchester United vs Chelsea Head-to-HeadUnited are unbeaten in their last 11 home league games against Chelsea (W5 D6), and are looking to win three in a row against the Blues at Old Trafford for the first time since January 1957.
These sides last met in April, with Chelsea coming from behind to win a thriller 4-3 at Stamford Bridge. The Blues last won consecutive league meetings with the Red Devils in March 2011 (a run of three).
United vs Chelsea is the most drawn fixture in Premier League history, with 26 of the previous 64 meetings between the sides finishing level.
Man Utd vs Chelsea PredictionThe supercomputer is struggling to separate these sides ahead of what looks like to be a tight affair.
In 37.8% of the model’s simulations, United came out on top and that gives them the edge, but only just.
Chelsea were the winners in 37.3% of the 10,000 data-led sims, while a draw occurred in 24.9%.
Manchester United vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups Opta Power RankingsThe Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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