Cristiano Ronaldo and Euro 2016 champions Portugal hope to bounce back from their slip to end the group stage and regroup for a Round of 16 matchup against Slovenia on Monday in Frankfurt.
With the top spot in Group F already wrapped up, Portugal fell to Georgia 2-0 to close it out, pegging them back from a confidence perspective heading into the knockout stage. Yet from a competitive standpoint, the defeat mattered little, and now the truly meaningful matches have arrived.
Ronaldo has not scored a goal yet at Euro 2024, but has provided one en route to establishing himself atop the all-time assist provider in the history of the European Championship. His unselfish play has garnered plaudits, but Portugal will need him to finish chances as well if they wish to push through to the latter stages of the competition.
57th-ranked Slovenia, meanwhile, progressed through after securing three straight draws in the group stage, finishing level against Denmark, Serbia, and England. They were defensively stout through those three games, grinding down their higher-ranked opposition to concede just two total goals and not allowing over 1.7 xG in any of those matches.
Portugal vs. Slovenia prediction, oddsMoneyline lean: Portugal (-275)Score prediction: Portugal 2-0 SloveniaPortugal were poor against Georgia, but they made multiple changes to the lineup with their fate already sealed, and still generated a solid amount of attacking pressure.
On the other end, they conceded just four "big chances" through the three games, and only three if you remove the penalty won by Georgia, which is a somewhat artificially-generated "chance."
Slovenia will bunker and keep Portugal from unleashing fury, but it will be largely one-way traffic which should lead to a relatively elementary result for Ronaldo and company.
BetMGM(USA)Portugal win-275Draw+380Slovenia win+825Both teams
to scoreY: +130
N: -190Over / Under
2.5 goalsO: -120
U: -120Portugal
to qualify-650Slovenia
to qualify+450Portugal vs. Slovenia match factsDate: Monday, Jul. 1, 2024Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)Location: Deutsche Bank Park (Frankfurt, Germany)Referee: Daniele Orsato (ITA)Last meeting: Slovenia 2-0 Portugal (Mar. 26, 2024 | Friendly)Portugal vs. Slovenia best betPick: Portugal over 6.5 cornersOdds: -130 (BetMGM)
Slovenia conceded 24 corners through their three group stage games, even coughing up six to a drab England side in one of their worst performances of the last few years.
Portugal had a dud against Turkey from a corner perspective, but that was an anomaly, as they collected a double-digit total from their other two matches. They racked up 13 in a win over Czechia and then 11 in defeat to Georgia. The majority came with the team level or losing, and with Slovenia likely to try and frustrate Portugal throughout the match, the favorites will rely on their ability to get vertical.
Portugal vs. Slovenia prop betPick: Half with most goals — 1HOdds: +210 (BetMGM)Through the group stage, Portugal were happy to plod along through the first half before turning on the jets, often needing a bit of a jolt to get truly into gear.
Yet of their five goals to this point, they see a quite normal distribution. Three of their five goals were scored in the second half, while 2.41 of their 4.22 xG collected through the three group stage games came after halftime. Neither of those numbers are overwhelmingly one or the other, and it's usual for teams to have a slightly higher attacking production in the second half.
For Slovenia's part, however, they've been gettable early in matches. They conceded early to Denmark who collected more than half their expected goals in the opening 45 minutes, and England put together 0.6 of their 0.8 xG in the first half. Dating back to before the Euros, they conceded an early penalty goal to Bulgaria in a 1-1 friendly draw just before the competition began.
While this selection can be wildly fluky, there's real value in the first half of this match.
Portugal vs. Slovenia live stream, TV channel TV channelStreamingUSAFOXFubo USA, Fox Sports app/website, ViXCanadaTSN3, TSN4, TLN, TVA SportsTSN+, TVA+, VIVAUKBBC OneBBC iPlayerThis Euro 2024 Round of 16 match will be televised in the United States on FOX, which can be streamed on Fubo, who are offering a FREE trial for new users. A Spanish-language broadcast is available via streaming service ViX.
In Canada, this game will be shown across a host of TSN channels as well as on CTV, with a French-language broadcast available on TVA Sports. Additionally, TLN is broadcasting matches for Italy, Portugal and Spain throughout the tournament.
In the UK, Euro 2024 matches are split between ITV and the BBC. This match will be televised by the BBC, with streaming on their dedicated platform, BBC iPlayer.
