While the candidature of All India Congress Committee general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra in the Wayanad Lok Sabha bypoll has enthused the rank and file of the Congress party in Kerala, the decision has apparently put the Communist Party of India (CPI), a member of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a quandary over fielding strong candidates against her.
The dilemma has become more evident as the leadership of both the parties are ambiguous in their stand on whether they will nominate formidable contestants, as they did against Congress leader Rahul Gandhi during his re-election bid in the hill constituency in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Unlike in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls when Mr. Gandhi had to face lightweight contestants, the CPI nominated its national executive member and general secretary of National Federation of Women, Annie Raja, and the BJP, its State president K. Surendran, in the just-concluded polls.
This shift was reflected in the vote shares of the three main candidates this time. Mr. Gandhi’s vote share fell from 64.94% to 59.69%, while Ms. Raja’s and Mr. Surendren’s vote shares increased by 0.8% and 5.75%, respectively. One factor is that in 2019, the majority of voters in Wayanad saw a potential Prime Minister in Rahul Gandhi. However, by 2024, exit polls suggested a strong narrative that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would secure a third consecutive term.
Both the CPI and the BJP have indicated that they will field their nominees. However, it is understood that Ms. Raja, while welcoming Ms. Vadra’s candidature, is not keen to contest the byelection for various reasons. Despite her iron-willed electioneering campaign in the constituency, Ms. Annie failed to fetch the votes that the Left parties had hoped for.
Many now believe that the CPI should field a local leader who can garner better support. In the 2014 polls, CPI leader Sathyan Mokeri secured 38.92% of the votes against the 41.21% obtained by the late Congress leader M.I. Shanavas, who was seeking a second term.
The BJP has not yet decided whether to field Mr. Surendran or a senior leader from Kozhikode for the Wayanad byelection. Even though they have consistently finished a distant third in all elections since the constituency’s creation in 2009, the BJP, along with its ally Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) (which fielded its president Thushar Vellappally in 2019), remains politically committed to putting up a strong fight. In 2024, the BJP increased its vote share by over 62,000 votes.
The elections may be two or three months away, but the names of several candidates have been hotly debated in the constituency spread across all three Assembly segments in Wayanad, three district segments in Malappuram, and one in Kozhikode.
As per Section 151 A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission is mandated to fill the casual vacancies in the Houses of Parliament and State Legislatures through elections within six months from the date of occurrence of the vacancy.
