Manchester United vs Tottenham Prediction | Opta Analyst

Man Utd are given a slight edge by the Opta supercomputer for this Premier League game at Old Trafford, but their form isn’t great. We look ahead to Sunday’s clash with our Manchester United vs Tottenham prediction and preview.

Manchester United vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester United favourites for victory with a 41.1% win probability, while Tottenham are given a 34.6% chance of taking three points. Man Utd have won 24 Premier League home games against Spurs – only Arsenal have beaten an opponent more often at home in the competition (25 versus Everton). Marcus Rashford has scored six Premier League goals versus Tottenham, only ever netting more against Leicester City (eight).

Having fallen short last term, both Manchester United and Tottenham started the 2024-25 season with Champions League qualification their primary aim. However, five games in, neither side has stood out as a team to beat in the race for a top-four finish.

With just seven points apiece, United and Spurs sit 11th and 10th, respectively, in the early season standings ahead of Matchday 6.

Both Erik ten Hag and Ange Postecoglou have come under pressure already this season, and should either suffer defeat on Sunday, the criticism will only be amplified.

United’s familiar failings in the final third proved costly on Matchday 5 as they were held to a goalless draw at Crystal Palace. Ten Hag’s men dominated for long periods but could not make the breakthrough, failing to take any of their five big chances and seeing their former goalkeeper Dean Henderson make seven saves for Palace to keep them at bay.

United’s total expected goals (xG) figure of 9.6 for the season is the third highest in the Premier League, behind only title contenders Manchester City (11.46) and Liverpool (10.1). However, United have hit the net just five times, giving them an xG underperformance of 4.6.

Only Southampton (two goals from 7.1 xG) have posted a larger negative differential in the competition this term, though United have also been unfortunate to face some in-form goalkeepers, with their expected goals on target (xGoT) figure only slightly lower than their xG at 9.08.

A hamstring injury has limited Rasmus Højlund’s playing time this season, but he has featured in each of their games in the past week as a substitute, meaning a first start of the campaign could be close.

New arrival Joshua Zirkzee led the line at Palace but didn’t have much of an impact, only attempting one shot and managing three touches in the box. Nevertheless, Zirkzee has amassed more xG (2.19) than any other United player this season, despite only starting three of their five league matches.

Ten Hag’s decision to rest Marcus Rashford for that match, just days after declaring the forward was getting back to his best, gave rise to rumours of a rift between the duo, which the Dutchman later described as “crazy”. Rashford appears likely to return to the lineup on Sunday after looking sharp against Twente in the Europa League on Thursday. He’s also scored six previous Premier League goals against Spurs – only against Leicester City (eight) has he netted more.

Since the start of last season, only Newcastle United (53) and Brighton (47) have allowed their opponents more fast breaks than Tottenham (44, level with Man Utd) in Premier League action. In what should be an open affair, Rashford could have a key role to play.

Postecoglou’s team, meanwhile, responded to back-to-back league defeats with a much-needed 3-1 victory over Brentford last week. Dominic Solanke, Brennan Johnson and James Maddison netted after Bryan Mbeumo opened the scoring within 23 seconds.

Since the start of last season, only Man City (31) have gained more points from losing positions in the Premier League than Spurs’ 28.

It is just as well that Postecoglou’s men showed their powers of recovery in that game, with rumblings of discontent starting to emerge in the early weeks of the season – they also needed two late goals to beat Coventry City in the EFL Cup just three days earlier. Thursday’s Europa League win against Qarabag also came after they’d gone down to 10 men.

Postecoglou has warned there is no “quick fix” to make Tottenham competitive at the top end of the league, but improving their dismal away form would be a good place to start.

They took 14 points from their first six away Premier League games under Postecoglou (four wins, two draws), only to manage just 14 from their next 15 on the road (three wins, five draws, seven defeats).

Among ever-present Premier League teams across the last two seasons, no side has won fewer away games since the start of November 2023 than Spurs (3), with Bournemouth (24), Nottingham Forest (19) and Crystal Palace (15) among the clubs to better their 14 away points won in that span, a figure that puts them level with Everton.

If they are to land a blow at the Theatre of Dreams, captain Son Heung-min will be key, having had a hand in five goals in his last seven league appearances against United, scoring four and assisting one.

As a team, only Liverpool (282) have made more off-the-ball runs into the opposition’s box than Tottenham (263) in the Premier League this season. For individual players, Son (54) and Dejan Kulusevski (43) rank joint first and joint-third for this respectively. Given United’s struggles in defensive transitions, expect the South Korean to get opportunities.

Manchester United vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

United have won 24 Premier League home games against Tottenham – only Arsenal have beaten an opponent more often at home in the competition’s history (25 versus Everton).

Spurs are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games against the Red Devils, though, winning one and drawing two after losing four straight against them between 2021 and 2022.

Postecoglou’s team twice fought back to recover a 2-2 draw when they last visited Old Trafford in January, Rodrigo Bentancur and Richarlison cancelling out goals from Højlund and Rashford.

However, United have not lost at home to Spurs since Ole Gunnar Solskjær oversaw a dismal 6-1 defeat in October 2020, winning two and drawing one of their three home matches against them under Ten Hag.

Manchester United vs Tottenham Prediction

The Opta supercomputer makes United favourites for Sunday’s game, but not comprehensively.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, United were victorious in 41.1%, with Spurs winning 34.9% and the other 24% finishing level.

Following their underwhelming starts to 2024-25, neither United nor Spurs are considered favourites for UEFA Champions League qualification in our season predictions.

Ten Hag’s side are assigned just a 7.9% chance of making the top four, with seventh (15.1%) their likeliest final position. Tottenham make the top four in 8.4% of scenarios, with seventh (14.6%) also seen as their most likely position.

Manchester United vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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