UEFA Champions League Match Predictions | Opta Analyst

With the help of the AI-powered Opta supercomputer, we provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for every game across 2024-25.

The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all UEFA Champions League matches and season outcomes.

Real Madrid have won the most European Cup/Champions League titles (15), with nine of those coming in the UCL era since 1992. They’ll be looking to add yet another this season following their 2023-24 success in the final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley Stadium.

Manchester City are likely to be their biggest rivals in the quest for European glory in 2024-25, with Pep Guardiola’s side having won their first title in 2023 versus Internazionale. Fellow Premier League side Arsenal are also highly fancied, but they’re yet to win a UCL title despite this being their 21st season in the competition.

Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered Opta supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.

Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Champions League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest UCL projections.

Matchday 4 of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League kicks off with two early matches on Tuesday – PSV hosting Girona in Eindhoven, while Slovan Bratislava host Dinamo Zagreb.

Both PSV and Girona could do with a win to improve their chances of making it out of the league phase, but the Opta supercomputer deems the home side the most likely to secure all three points (58.6%).

The Eredivisie champions may be unbeaten in their last five UCL home games, but four of those have ended as a draw. Girona suffered injury-time heartache in their only Champions League away game so far, losing 1-0 at PSG. The omens are good for them in this match, despite the supercomputer’s pre-match prediction, as no Spanish club have ever lost their opening two away games in the Champions League.

Slovan Bratislava have been the competition whipping boys so far, and they sit bottom of the table with zero points and a goal difference of -10. A home match with Dinamo Zagreb gives them a decent chance of securing at least a point (a 58.7% chance according to the supercomputer), but the Croatians won at Salzburg last time out. This game gives Dinamo the opportunity to win consecutive away matches for the first time ever across the European Cup or Champions League.

Home wins are predicted as likely outcomes for Borussia Dortmund (70.8% vs Sturm Graz), Real Madrid (67.8% vs Milan) and Liverpool (53.2% vs Bayer Leverkusen). The Reds will come up against former player Xabi Alonso and his reigning Bundesliga champions at Anfield.

Alongside Aston Villa, Liverpool are one of only two sides with a 100% record after three matchdays of the 2024-25 UCL season, while Arne Slot’s side also top the Premier League table following this weekend’s comeback win over Brighton. Mohamed Salah scored the winning goal in that match and his form in the Champions League at Anfield has been superb, scoring in each of his last five appearances there in the competition.

Kylian Mbappé will be hoping to reach 50 Champions League goals when Real Madrid host Milan on Tuesday night. If he does so, he will become the joint-third fastest to the landmark (77 apps, alongside Robert Lewandowski) behind only Ruud van Nistelrooy (62) and Lionel Messi (66).

Manchester City broke the outright record for the longest unbeaten run in European Cup/Champions League history on MD 3, as they stretched their run to 26 games with a win over Sparta Prague. This week will be trickier, however, as they face Sporting CP in Lisbon with future Manchester United manager Rúben Amorim in the dugout.

City are the favourites with the Opta supercomputer (50.1%), but come into the match with a host of injuries and having lost their last two matches in all competitions versus Tottenham and Bournemouth. They haven’t suffered three consecutive defeats within a single season since April 2018.

Elsewhere, Lille (41.5%) are the favourites at home to Juventus, while Bologna (37.9%-win projection) versus Monaco (35.7%) is the closest game to call on Tuesday night.

Aston Villa top the Champions League league phase table coming into MD 4 and will hope to keep up their 100% record this season in the competition away at Club Brugge in one of Wednesday’s early kick-offs.

Villa are expected to do just that by the Opta supercomputer, winning 45% of the pre-match simulations. Not only have Villa won their opening three Champions League games, but they have kept a clean sheet in them all too. Only three teams have won their first four games: Milan in 1993, Paris Saint-Germain in 1994 and Juventus in 1995, none of whom did so with a clean sheet in each game.

The other early kick-off sees Shakhtar Donetsk ‘host’ Young Boys in Germany, with both teams desperately needing a win. The Ukrainian side have just one point after three games, while Young Boys are one of six teams on zero points. The supercomputer makes Shakhtar the favourites at 45.4%.

Barcelona have made an exceptional start to the season and have already scored 50 goals across 15 competitive matches in 2024-25. Robert Lewandowski has scored 17 of those, and he could be key to more success on Wednesday night. The Opta supercomputer gives Barça the highest chance of success across MD 4, with a 75.2% probability of victory on their travels to Crvena zvezda.

Home wins are expected for Bayern Munich – another team to have scored 50 competitive goals in 2024-25 already – (68.3% vs Benfica), Feyenoord (58.8% vs Salzburg), PSG (53.1% vs Atlético Madrid) and VfB Stuttgart (41.2% versus Atalanta), while Sparta Prague are also projected to beat Ligue 1 side Brest (40.1%).

Arguably the game of the matchday takes place at San Siro, where Inter Milan host Arsenal.

Both of these clubs find themselves inside the top five of the Opta Power Rankings, but with slightly different form coming into the game.

Inter are unbeaten in eight competitive games (W7 D1) and sit second in the Serie A table, a point behind Napoli. Arsenal suffered a defeat to Newcastle in the Premier League this weekend, which was their second defeat in three league matchdays after a 2-0 loss at Bournemouth last month. Both teams are still unbeaten in the Champions League this season, however, with both Arsenal and Inter winning twice and drawing the other game.

The Opta supercomputer believes home advantage and recent form gives Inter the slight edge in this match, as the Italian side won 37.9% of the pre-match simulations compared to Arsenal’s 34.5%-win rate.

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