UEFA Champions League Match Predictions | The Analyst
With the help of the AI-powered Opta supercomputer, we provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for every game across each matchday.
The UEFA Champions League season in 2023-24 promises to be one of the best in recent memory.
Manchester City won their first ever UCL title in 2022-23 thanks to a 1-0 win over Internazionale, but can they become just the second club to retain the Champions League trophy after Real Madrid’s three successive titles between 2016 and 2018? With Europe’s biggest and best clubs competing, it’ll be a tough task.
Our AI-powered supercomputer will be making its Opta Predictions for every fixture over the course of what looks set to be an exciting UCL season.
Read on, as Opta Analyst provides its UEFA Champions League match predictions and be sure to check back here ahead of each matchday.
Last 16 – Leg 1 (13-14 February)The UEFA Champions League returns this week after a two-month break, with the first set of last 16 ties in the competition involving eight of the clubs.
Holders Manchester City are one of the eight teams in action this week, as they travel to Denmark, while Spanish giants Real Madrid also face a tricky away trip.
We look over the Opta supercomputer match predictions for all four of this week’s ties.
The Quick Hits Heading into the knockout stage, Manchester City – who face FC Copenhagen – are the favourites to win the Champions League, with the Opta Predictor giving Pep Guardiola’s team a 32.1% chance of going on to retain the title. The final will take place at Wembley in June. City have a 93.9% likelihood of making the next round, the most of any side left in the competition. Fourteen-time champions of Europe Real Madrid face RB Leipzig – their chances of victory in the first leg are over 40%. Manuel Neuer will hope to match a long-standing Iker Casillas record when Bayern Munich take on Lazio on Wednesday.This will be the fifth competitive meeting between FC Copenhagen, making just their second appearance in the Champions League knockout stage, and Man City. The reigning UCL and Premier League champions have never been beaten by the Danish side, though they were held to draws in two matches (2-2 in the 2008-09 UEFA Cup, 0-0 in the 2022-23 Champions League).
City have never won away against Danish opponents in major European competition, drawing with Copenhagen twice and losing to Aalborg BK in 2009, though they did beat FC Midtjylland in a qualifier for the UEFA Cup back in 2008.
That being said, City are overwhelming favourites to break that duck on Tuesday, with our predictor model handing them a 71% chance of victory. Copenhagen’s chances are rated at a slim 11.3%.
Of the remaining teams, Copenhagen are the least likely to win the Champions League based on the Opta predictor, which gives just a 0.05% chance of them lifting the title. Their chances of making the quarter-finals are just 6.1%. The differential between City and Copenhagen in our Global Opta Power Rankings is also the largest among the round of 16 match-ups.
Interestingly, despite winning the trophy last year, City have not won any of their last five away games in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages (D4 L1), since beating Sporting CP 5-0 in the round of 16 in 2021-22. They are, though, on an eight-game winning streak in the UCL, the longest run by an English side in European Cup/Champions League history. The last team to have a longer run were Bayern, between 2019 and 2020 (15).
Copenhagen did, of course, stun the other team from Manchester in the group stage, coming from behind to beat Manchester United 4-3 at the Parken Stadium thanks to a late strike from 18-year-old Roony Bardghji. The only teenager to score against two different English clubs in the Champions League is Kylian Mbappé (Man City and Liverpool), while Bardghji is aiming to be the first to do so in the same season.
Erling Haaland returned to scoring form after his injury lay-off with a double against Everton on Saturday, but he is not the only attacker Copenhagen will have to look out for – Julián Álvarez has been involved in six goals in his last five Champions League appearances (five goals, one assist), despite only starting one of these matches. The Argentine is averaging a goal or assist every 62 minutes in the competition, and one every 31 minutes this term.
RB Leipzig vs Real MadridLa Liga leaders Real Madrid are given a 43.5% chance of winning the first leg of their tie with RB Leipzig, but Los Blancos have been dealt a blow after Jude Bellingham suffered an ankle injury in Saturday’s big win over Girona – a match in which the England international scored twice.
It will be a real test for Madrid, given Bellingham leads all players in the Champions League this season for chances created following a carry (nine) and via a line-breaking pass (six) and chances created from open play in general (15). He has directly contributed to a goal in all five of his appearances for Madrid in the competition, with four goals and three assists to his name – no player has been involved in more goals in the competition so far this season.
While Madrid, who won all six of their group matches, are well fancied over the two legs (72.8% chance of progressing), Leipzig’s chances are not bad either – at 27.2% – so do not be surprised if the Bundesliga team cause Carlo Ancelotti’s side problems.
Loïs Openda has proved to be a fantastic addition – he has already scored four Champions League goals this term, with only Christopher Nkunku (seven in 2021-22) netting more in a single campaign for Leipzig.
Xavi Simons, meanwhile, continues to impress. Two of his seven goals for Leipzig this term have come in the Champions League, with the Netherlands international more than capable of the spectacular. He has also provided two assists in the competition, from 12 chances created.
Madrid are on their longest winning run in the Champions League since a run of 10 games between April 2014 and February 2015, while they have progressed from 11 of their last 13 round of 16 ties, reaching at least the semi-finals in each of the last three campaigns since losing at this stage to Man City in 2019-20.
Los Blancos have lost just one of their last 15 Champions League matches against German sides (W10 D4), though that was a 3-2 loss at Leipzig in last season’s competition. They have not been eliminated by German opponents since the 2012-13 semi-finals, when they were defeated by Borussia Dortmund.
This is Leipzig’s fourth appearance in the Champions League knockout stages, but it is the first time they are not facing an English opponent in the round of 16.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Real SociedadAmong the eight teams that finished second in their group and therefore will host the first leg, Paris Saint-Germain, along with Inter, are the only sides with over a 50% chance of reaching the quarter-finals.
Real Sociedad head to the Parc des Princes on Wednesday, with the Spanish side having gone unbeaten through the group stage, whereas PSG rather bundled their way through the ‘group of death’, squeezing in ahead of Milan and Newcastle United on Matchday 6.
PSG are, however, made the favourites to win the first leg (55%). Luis Enrique was able to rest Kylian Mbappé in Saturday’s 3-1 win over Lille. The France star has scored in each of his last five Champions League appearances against Spanish opposition, netting seven goals in total in these matches. In fact, Mbappé is the last player to score a hat-trick against a Spanish side in the knockout stages of the competition, having done so against Barcelona back in February 2021 (for PSG in the round of 16).
The 25-year-old has scored 43 goals in 67 appearances in the Champions League. Should Mbappé find the net in this game, he will overtake Raúl as the the player to have scored the second-most UCL goals while aged 25 or under, with only Lionel Messi (59) netting more than those two.
Mbappé is being strongly linked with a move to Real Madrid in the summer, and if this is indeed going to be his final season in Paris, then he will want to go out by being the player that finally dragged them to a Champions League crown, albeit their chances of winning the title are rated at just 6.4%.
PSG failed to win any of their last three group stage games (D2 L1). They last went four Champions League games without a win in the same campaign between MD6 and the quarter-final in 2014-15 (D2 L3).
They will have to get past a stern test in the form of Real Sociedad, too – Imanol Alguacil’s team kept more clean sheets (four), conceded fewer goals (two) and faced fewer shots on target (12) than any other side in this year’s group stage.
Expect plenty of high pressing in this game, from both teams. Real Sociedad have forced 70 high turnovers already in the Champions League (11.6 per game), while PSG have the lowest PPDA (opposition passes per defensive action) average (8.3) in the tournament, with La Real second on 9.6.
Real Sociedad’s only previous appearance in the Champions League knockout stages was in 2003-04 – they lost 1-0 in both legs of the last 16 to French side Lyon. However, after reaching the final in 2020 and the semi-finals in 2021, PSG have been eliminated at the round-of-16 stage in the last two seasons.
Lazio vs Bayern MunichBayern were hammered 3-0 by Bayer Leverkusen in a huge Bundesliga title clash on Saturday, but Thomas Tuchel’s team are nevertheless big favourites to come away from Stadio Olimpico with a victory when they face Lazio.
Their chances of winning the first leg against the Serie A side are rated at 56.7%, with Lazio given a 20.3% likelihood of success.
Bayern have progressed from 11 of their last 12 Champions League round-of-16 ties, with the exception coming against eventual champions Liverpool in 2018-19. They have avoided defeat in the first leg of these ties in each of the last 11 campaigns (W7 D4).
Having been eliminated from four of their first five Champions League knockout ties against Italian sides (including the 2010 final against Inter), Bayern have now progressed from each of their last three. They are unbeaten in 12 games against Italian teams, since a 3-2 home loss to Inter in March 2011.
The only previous meetings between Lazio and Bayern came in the 2020-21 Champions League round of 16, with the German side winning both legs (4-1 away, 2-1 at home).
No player has been involved in more goals in this season’s competition than Harry Kane (seven – four goals, three assists). Only in 2017-18 (nine) has the England captain been involved in more in a single campaign.
However, Lazio – who are making just their third appearance in the knockout stage of the UCL – have a star forward of their own. Of the 10 players to have scored five or more goals for Lazio in the Champions League, Ciro Immobile has the best minutes-per-goal ratio (99). The Italian has netted eight times in 11 such appearances for the club, with only Simone Inzaghi scoring more overall (15 goals in 31 appearances).
Champions League Last 16 Ties in FullFC Copenhagen vs Manchester CityRB Leipzig vs Real MadridParis Saint-Germain vs Real SociedadLazio vs Bayern MunichInter vs Atletico MadridPSV vs Borussia DortmundPorto vs ArsenalNapoli vs Barcelona
*All prediction numbers are correct at the time of publication.
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