us presidential elections 2024: US Presidential Elections 2024 ...

With only a day left before Election Day, polling data reveals a razor-thin race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Nationally, recent polls show the candidates either tied or with Harris holding a slight edge, reflecting the tense atmosphere as both campaigns make their final pushes.

Trump is staging rallies across Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Harris has been actively campaigning in Michigan, even making a high-profile appearance on Saturday Night Live to rally support, as mentioned in the USA Today report.

Shocking Turn in Iowa: Harris Leads

A recent poll by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom reveals an unexpected twist in Iowa, with Harris leading Trump by a three-point margin of 47% to 44%. This is a striking development, considering Trump won Iowa in both 2016 and 2020.

The poll surveyed 808 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±3.4 points, suggesting that Iowa—a state traditionally leaning conservative—could see a shift in this election.

According to pollster J. Ann Selzer, Harris’s surprising lead represents a substantial shift from Trump’s previous support base in the state.

National Polls Show a Deadlock

Nationally, Trump and Harris remain neck and neck. An NBC News poll, conducted from October 30 to November 2, places both candidates at 49% among registered voters, with only 2% still undecided.

Similarly, Emerson College’s latest national poll also shows a tie, with each candidate holding 49% of likely voters' support. Emerson’s polling director, Spencer Kimball, highlighted a notable gender gap, with women favoring Harris by 12 points and men favoring Trump by an equal margin, illustrating a divided electorate.

A narrow majority of voters, 50%, believe Trump will ultimately win, while 49% expect Harris to prevail, as per the USA Today report.

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Mixed Trends in Swing States

A New York Times/Siena College poll of battleground states paints a complex picture. Harris has gained slight leads in key swing states, including North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Trump holds a small lead in Arizona.

In Georgia and Nevada, Harris maintains a slight advantage, while Pennsylvania and Michigan are deadlocked. This poll sampled 7,879 likely voters with a margin of error of ±1.3 points across the battlegrounds and ±3.5 points per state, capturing a volatile pre-election landscape.

ABC News/Ipsos Poll Adds to Harris’s Lead

An additional national poll by ABC News/Ipsos, conducted between October 29 and November 1, shows Harris with a three-point lead, at 49% to Trump’s 46%. The poll surveyed 3,140 adults, with a margin of error of ±2 points for the full sample.

In swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, this margin widens slightly, providing a slim but critical advantage for Harris in some of these key areas.

Polling Accuracy and Margin of Error

Pollsters remain cautious, noting potential inaccuracies due to narrow margins of error. When a candidate's lead is within the margin of error, it is considered a statistical tie, as noted by the Pew Research Center.

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The Center also emphasized that pollsters have adapted their methodologies since 2016 and 2020, when Trump’s support was underestimated. As Election Day nears, these changes aim to improve accuracy, yet the race remains exceptionally close, leaving the final outcome uncertain.

FAQs

When will US Election voting begin?
The polling will begin on November 5.

Who is leading in the US elections?
As per the latest national poll, Kamala Harris is leading the election polls in most states and is neck in neck with Trump in many states.